It seems that politicians are loath to trust the voters on this question of whether Britain should be part of the European Union. A referendum is still denied, even by the present Conservative-led government. They fear (correctly) that the issue is beyond comprehension for most and that the public would end up making a rather ill-informed choice, most probably with a NO. So let us be clear about what’s happening instead – political leaders want to proceed with an undemocratic YES, whereupon important constitutional, legal, and administrative institutions take shape at the discretion of an elite, who are called policymakers. It begs the question also, how did European integration come to be so large an issue and so impenetrable? When was it more manageable in the past, if ever, and how come it quickly snowballed without consultation? People don’t naturally jump head first into something they don’t know much about, so in this sense a NO is the natural and very sensible answer.
Indeed, if the situation just described doesn’t ring alarm bells, it jolly well should. We should ask ourselves what has happened consistently in the past, and still today all over the world, when the people acquiesce to an elite and things get out of hand. Basically, I am about to describe why European integration is a bad idea, and you will find that things like individual liberty and economic prosperity are at stake, more so than national sovereignty. Certainly, this isn’t about such trivialisations as xenophobic attitudes or having the Queen’s head on our currency.
The early-modern period in continental Europe was marked by a stampede of dictatorships – Napoleon, Hitler, Mussolini, Franco – they being the inevitable products of a collectivist popular mindset, whereupon power runs away from people into hands of elite ‘policymakers’. Half a century on from the last of these dictatorships, a collectivist and centralising instinct still persists, however, and its destructive force is just as potent. It now takes the form of social-democracy (a contradiction of terms if ever there was one), the European Union project and the Euro. And because of this Europe is once more on the brink of collapse.
The financial meltdown of 2008 and the on-going Greek tragedy were/are like a car crash waiting to happen. To explain, it is possible that one could zoom around the highways at excessive speed and nothing will happen for a long time, so much so that one doesn’t feel one is doing something wrong. But the reality is that sooner or later a spectacular and tragic collision will occur for sure. Both crises are also perhaps a blessing in disguise, a wake-up call. For instance, we would not have known that the previous Labour government in the UK was spending far too much and the discipline wasn’t there to cushion us against a bust when it eventually arrived. And what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger right? In the UK we at least appear to be learning, as the public does now recognises the need for fiscal discipline.
As for the EU and the Eurozone (monetary union), however, our continental neighbours show no sign of any learning. To a large degree neither do we on the matter. The Greek situation, in fact, is part of a bigger problem, for which a more appropriate analogy is required. This is the proverbial frog placed in a pan of water that is gradually heated to a boil, and the frog dies having never noticed his predicament. He doesn’t notice because it happened all too slowly. Thus, more deadly than the present Greek situation and virtually undetected, is the universally suffocating effect of political and fiscal union, the EU project itself. It goes undetected because our so called intellectuals – the broadsheet commentators, business leaders, elected officials – have been totally conditioned by the fact of the EU’s existence, incapable of seeing the bigger picture. And yes, this is about the EU itself, not just the Euro.
When the Euro was first adopted in 1999 its pros and cons were hotly debated. I remember a job interview where I was asked to explain if I was for or against it. Put simply, the major advantage was said to be currency stability and better price comparison, which would allow businesses to operate more easily across borders, thereby improving trade and competition. As tourists also, we have to say that the convenience of a common currency has improved our travel experiences, though Switzerland is still a pain.
The major disadvantage of the Euro was said to be diverging economic performances. If some Eurozone countries went into recession while the rest were in good health, or if some Eurozone countries tended to drag their feet compared to others (as with the North-South situation now), the laggards can expect little relief because monetary policy (interest rates) are set for the Eurozone as a whole and because currency devaluation is obviously not possible. This is what the Foreign Secretary William Hague recently described, reiterating his comments of 1998, as “a burning building with no exits”.
But important as these issues are, this isn’t even the half of it. Anyone vaguely familiar with the European mindset knows very well that neither the EU nor the Euro were pursued for economic reasons. The real reasons were political. I certainly concur, but I also think the stated political reasons hide a deeper motivation – something of a dark past and a fatal flaw in the European psyche – which afflicts the mainland continent more than Britain.
One of the stated reasons is that political union prevents war. Centuries of bitter and costly armed conflict, culminating in the two world wars of the modern age, have left Western Europeans with a nagging fear of recurring mutual destruction, apparently. This is rubbish, and I think many European policymakers themselves know that it is something of a pretext. We are now a long way from armed conflict within Western Europe because unprecedented economic growth in the last two centuries, along with the spread of democracy, have manifestly altered the cost-benefit calculation of war, to the point that it is just not worthwhile anymore. Can you imagine Germany trying to invade France again today!
The real reason for political union is the persistence of a collectivist mindset going back to the Middle Ages. In this time, the major countries of Continental Europe (e.g. France, Spain, and Germany) retained their absolute monarchies for much longer than did England. Reflecting a more rigid, more feudal, and less free society, economic growth was thus slower to take hold there. By contrast, an individualist and pro-commerce culture took hold more so in England, and initially in Holland, where arbitrary rule gave way to an emerging and powerful merchant class – a bottom up cultural and economic evolution. It is for this reason, among some others, that the Industrial Revolution, to which we owe the modern world, happened in England and not in France, Germany or Spain. Today, notice that socialism, the modern expression of that same collectivist culture, is much stronger in continental Europe than in Britain. And it is this instinct that compels our European neighbours to pursue such all-embracing and centralising projects as European Union with such vigour.
In defence of the EU project it is also said that a larger political and economic unit will help counterbalance and compete against other countries like China and the US. But this is another massive fallacy, as the same history alluded to above demonstrates. Before the modern world, for nearly a thousand years, city-states in Italy and then European nations competed against each other, often, but not primarily, by violent means. Entrepreneurs and commercial centres flourished where the political and legal climate was most favourable, so rulers competed to attract markets and fairs. The first direct consequence was the Italian Renaissance from the 1300s. Competition between states also led to political reforms, reforms in taxation and the management of public finances, most notably in Holland and then England, leading to what we now know as modern accountable government. With a consequent improvement in ‘rule of law’, security of life and property, and with bottom-up law-making (English common law), civil society institutions and business enterprises proliferated like never before, and they reached unprecedented scales of operation, delivering modern infrastructure and mass factory production.
None of this happened in China, a large entity ruled by a single imperial decree, which was left stuck in the Medieval world. At the risk of sounding nationalistic, let’s also be clear that it was from these conditions a tiny island nation arose, Britain, to become the largest imperial power the world ever knew, exceeding even China and India’s economic standards many times over.
Now let’s return to the European Union which basically seeks to be like China, with centralised law-making, monetary and fiscal union, and political unification in every important respect. Hopefully the fatal flaw is apparent now. In such a union, there is no incentive for any of the member states to pursue reforms in governance and law since there is no competitive advantage to be had. Instead, it is a race to the bottom to see who can become the most complacent and who can succumb the most to populist welfare-communism. This ‘moral hazard’ problem afflicts leading countries such as Germany and France, and not just the obvious free riders like Greece and Spain (not that Germany and France needed an excuse). There is also an absence of plurality in legal systems, which would have otherwise allowed for the testing of different laws in order to find the best ones.
What we have now in Europe is an extraordinary bureaucracy where (i) every country and every bank is to be bailed out, in what is a heroic denial of the reality that someone somewhere has to take the hit (and it ought to be the ones who made the mistakes), (ii) a pointless myriad of gains and losses, subsidies and contributions, exchange rate advantages and disadvantages, all of which bind member countries into a muddle of epic proportions, (iii) a top-down legal system of continental hallmark, a tried and failed system, is imposed on Britain, and (iv) an elaborate network of corrupt and largely unaccountable regional development funds is busy constructing its own empire.
The result in the immediate term is slower growth than would otherwise have been the case, and in the long term, stagnation, mainly as I say, due to this inherent disincentive to innovate. Imagine you are standing in the year 1750… and then the Industrial Revolution never happens. Would you subsequently miss it or wonder why it didn’t happen? Of course not, you would have no concept of it in the first place. Likewise, we don’t know just how much of a disaster the EU project is, since we have no concept of the alternative world we effectively gave up, until of course the project brings us finally to a grinding economic halt.
This is why it is a slow boil to a certain death. The collectivist disease still pervades the European mindset, and despite Britain’s initial hard work in bringing about the modern world, much of Europe is now hell bent on reversing it all. The moral of the story – population size doesn’t matter, because it’s the quality of your economic and political organisation that determines economic and military strength. Like the industrial transformation, another new world awaits discovery… but it will never happen as long as collectivism dominates our consciousness as it has done so often in prior human history. On present trends, however, it looks like destruction is on the cards, if not ensured by the present debt crisis, then by a stagnation that will be permanent and not just prolonged.